How Low Can Mortgage Rates Go?
With current mortgage rates hovering between 4-5% a lot of homeowners are strongly considering refining their already low-mortgage rates that they obtained just a few years ago. Today’s mortgage rates are actually the lowest they’ve been in 50 years for a 30-year mortgage. Before that time most mortgages in United States were 20 or 25 year mortgages, which means that today’s mortgage rates are pretty much the lowest historical mortgage rates that consumers have ever seen on a 30-year-fixed-rate mortgage or home loan.
The question that many homeowners are now asking is: “How low can mortgage rates go?”
Obviously, if the rates go much lower then many homeowners with a good credit rating may consider holding off refinancing their home loan until the rates hit rock bottom. But knowing what the “rock bottom” mortgage rate is before they start going back up again is obviously very difficult to tell.
There is no one organization which controls, sets or determines the mortgage rates you pay at a bank. It is true that the Federal Reserve Board controls the “federal funds rate” which is the interest rate that banks are allowed to lend money to one another. But the Federal Reserve is not the only factor in determining mortgage rates. Instead, there are a number of different situations and variables controlling mortgage rates including inflation, bank financing efficiencies, and the various rates of returns of other investments.
You see, mortgages are pretty much like any other investment: people and banks buy and sell mortgages in order to make money off them. These mortgages are often bundled into “mortgage backed securities” and they are just another type of investment. You put money in and hope that you will receive more money back through interest and other payments. But, like any other investment, they also have to be competitive. If the rate of return on other investments like Treasury bonds goes up then it is likely that the mortgage rate will also go up to give investors in mortgages a similar product. The same is true if the rates go down.
While this is helpful to know, it doesn’t necessarily tells us exactly how low mortgage rates can go. The world economy is in a state that it has never been before, so there are no 100% guaranteed rules about what can happen and how low rates can go before they essentially stop going down and begin going back up.
That being said, there are some theoretical limits to how low interest rates can go and we might be getting close to that point. Some housing experts have mentioned the possibility of a 0% mortgage loan, but that seems unlikely given the understanding that home loans are used as a tool to make money and giving out such large no interest loans would probably not be a good investment in the long-term.
There is, therefore, a limit to how low mortgage rates can go. Again, there is no economic historical data to prove this, but it is generally believed that most lending institutions could not loan money below the 2-3% level without losing money through administration and risk associated with mortgage lending at the moment. Larger institutions may be able to go even lower because their cost to administer home loans could be lower than the costs which smaller lenders and banks need to incur.

Only you can ultimately decide if this is the best finance move for you, but are are some of the things you should think about when you’re considering refinancing your home loan: